01.12.2008

Stocks
On Friday, on November, 28th, after in public celebrated and, accordingly, a day off of Gratitude the auctions on equity markets of the USA for their participants tired with previous rest were conducted in the truncated mode, having closed at 3 o'clock before usual time therefore finishing November week has appeared hardly truncated. For lack of significant macroeconomic news and in not which condition of a post celebratory relaxation equity markets behaved easy enough with correctional dynamics on the basis of a previous information background. Nevertheless, the opinion sounded by much experts became the disturbing factor reflected in a course of the auctions, that the month of Prenew Year's sales bringing usually to dealers a significant part of their incomes starting one of these days, will appear this year essentially more modestly owing to decrease in buying power of the population owing to the known reasons.

However, these alarms have affected, mainly, results of commercial firms, and the markets as a whole have finished "midday" on Friday, no less than the last week, growth of all basic share indexes, but with a negative result for expired month. Index Dow Jones industrial average has risen on 102.43 items or 1.17 % to 8829.04 items, for a week growth has made 9.2 % whereas following the results of November decrease has made 5.3 %. Index Standard and Poor's 500 has raised on 8.56 items or 0.96 %, having closed at level of 896.24 items, the gain for a week has made 12 %, decrease following the results of November - 7.4 %. Index NASDAQ Composite has risen on 3.47 items or 0.23 % to significance of 1535.57 items, having won within a week 11 %, it has lost 10.8 % as a whole for November.

In sector of trade in view of pessimistic forecasts of decrease in volumes of Christmas, sales against financial difficulties worried by the population on 1.4 % shares of the world's largest retail trade system Wal-Mart Stores Inc entering in Torahs-30 have decreased. A significant loss following the results of the auctions have suffered also retailer fancies Tiffany and Co, whose shares have fallen in the price for 5.4 %, one of leading dealers of electronic engineering Best Buy Co (-1.8 %) and the holder of department store chain Dillard's Inc (-2.4 %). In sector of power in view of decrease in requirement for energy carriers in the conditions of a global economic crisis giant of branch Exxon mobil and Chevron have suffered losses, whose shares have decreased accordingly on 0.9 % and 1.1 %.

Leaders of motor industry General Motors Corp. (+8.9 %) and Ford Motor Co (+25 %) the significant have improved the items after it became known, that they prepare the plan of re-structuring which on Tuesday will be presented the Congress of the USA for reception of a grant-in-aid of branch at a rate of 25 bln dollars. General Motors, under messages of some sources, it is ready to leave in these purposes such brands, as Saab, Saturn and Pontiac. In the field of high technologies of the share of the leading manufacturer of microelectronic engineering Intel Corp. Have decreased on 1.2 % after decrease in target levels of sales volumes next year. In a financial sector on 17.6 % shares of the second on the size of assets of bank in USA Citigroup inc have grown, after the government promised to support to bank testing the big financial difficulties.

Recommendations about trade S&P500. Trade on Friday passed with increase in a range 875. Apparently on the day schedule the price on S&P500 still is below the important resistance at level of 1255.0 items 1014.0 of sliding average with the period 55 on the day schedule (the day schedule see), as possesses to price cut as trade still passes in frameworks of a long-term descending trend originating since July, 2007.

Sliding averages on indicator ADX on 4-hour schedule disperse in favor of increase. Force of a trend thus increases and makes 30 items that indicates strengthening /the bull/ spirit in the market in short-term prospect. The positive moment for /bulls/ is that fact, that the price for share index S&P500 is above sliding average with the period 55 on 4 hour schedule (level 847.00, see on 4 hour schedule) and it will support in short-term prospect to the price.

Lines Bollinger Bands on 4-hour schedule are developed upwards, and on the day schedule were stabilized, that indicates the further consolidation of the price in intermediate term prospect. On the day schedule, indicator ADX indicates that sliding averages mutually decrease. Force of a trend thus dies away and makes 25 items that indicates easing of the descending tendency in the market. In my opinion while the price on S&P500 remains above support at level 880.0 where average passes simple sliding on the day schedule most possibly further recovery of price to following resistance at level 1007.0. Support levels: 880.0, 847.0, 835.0, 770.0, 720.0. Resistance levels: 907.50, 1007.0, 1014.0, 1068.0, 1202.0, 1255.0.

Bond market
Treasuries rose, sending 10-year yields to a record low, before US reports that economists estimate will show manufacturing contracted and employers cut the most jobs since 2001.

Yields will decline in 2009 as the Federal Reserve lowers its target for overnight loans between banks to zero percent from 1 percent now, JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of the 17 primary dealers that trade directly with the central bank, wrote in a report on November 28.

Crude oil
The petroleum price has grown at the auctions on Friday and still bargains within the limits of an intermediate term descending trend and is below sliding average with the period 55 on the day schedule (level 77.00) and it gradually decreases that is very negative factor for a petroleum price and possesses to the further falling of the price. The petroleum price has punched a line of a long-term ascending trend. The petroleum price bargains also below sliding average with the period 55 on the week schedule (level 107.40) which has started to be developed gradually downwards, that possesses to the further falling of the price in long-term prospect.

On the day schedule, indicator ADX indicates that sliding averages disperse in favor of decrease. Force of a descending trend thus has grown for the last trading session a little and makes 46 items that indicates strengthening /a descending/ trend in the market. On 4-hour schedule indicator ADX indicates to us that sliding averages disperse in favor of decrease. Force of a trend thus grows and makes 16 items that indicates strengthening /a descending/ trend in the market in short-term prospect. The negative factor for players on increase is at that, that the petroleum price bargains below sliding average with the period 55 on 4-hour schedule (level 53.50 see on 4-hour schedule) which represents itself as resistance to the price in short-term prospect. Lines Bollinger Bands on 4-hour schedule were stabilized, and on the day schedule slightly decrease, that still indicates that in the market most possibly further price cut in intermediate term prospect.

While the petroleum price bargains below a minimum of this year (85.37), it possesses to the further decrease. The petroleum price bargains below sliding average with the period 55 on the week schedule (level 107.40). The Petroleum price remains within the limits of a range 50-55$. And today opening with gap downwards confirms this/scenario/. Most likely, the petroleum price in short-term prospect will bargain within the limits of a range 50-55$. Support at level 50$ for barrel is a serious technological level (it is possible to tell a crossroads) in price movement and if there will be its repeated breakdown most possibly further decrease in area of support 41$ for barrel where price consolidation most likely will begin. If it does not occur, we will see 25$ for barrel. Resistance levels: 53.50, 55.0, 60.0, 68.50, 70.35, 77.00, 77.27, 92.60, 98.80, 107.75. Support levels: 50.0, 41.0, 25.0.

Gold
Recommendations about trade (Gold). Sliding averages on indicator ADX on 4-hour schedule disperse in favor of decrease. Force of a trend thus dies away and makes 23.0 items that indicate absence /an accurate/ spirit in the market in short-term prospect. The positive factor for /bulls/ is now at that, that the gold price bargains above sliding average with the period 55 on 4 hour schedule (level 791.1) which acts now as support to a gold price in short-term prospect (see on 4 hour schedule). Corridor Bollinger Band continues to be developed upwards on the day schedule, and on 4-hour schedule was stabilized, that indicates high probability of recovery of price in intermediate term prospect.

On day schedule, ADX indicates that sliding averages disperse in favor of increase. Force of a trend thus grows and makes 27 items that indicates strengthening of the ascending tendency. However on the day schedule it is visible, that the gold price on former bargains below sliding average with period 55 (level 822.0), that yet does not promote the further recovery of price. For growth continuation it is necessary, that the gold price was fixed above the given level then level 885$ as approximately at this level there passes a line of an intermediate term descending trend can become the increase purpose.

The gold price also still bargains below level 896.0$ for ounce where average passes sliding with the period 55 on the week schedule (see the week schedule) that promotes price falling in long-term prospect. In the circumstances the gold price has chances for growth continuation, but for this purpose it is necessary to overcome resistance at level 822$ for ounce. As a whole, the technical picture in the gold market still possesses to falling in long-term prospect. Support levels: 798.0, 791.1, 768.5, 720.0, 682.5, 640.0. Resistance levels: 822.0, 830.0, 885.0, 896.0, 907.5, 920.0.